Hazard and resilience modelling

BGS Research

Little plant in dried cracked mud. Photo credit amphotora.

The hazard and resilience modelling team develops new and innovative data products to provide geoscientific information to our stakeholders, served up in a format that is accessible and intuitive.

Large waves batter Dawlish during high tide. Photo credit Moorefam.
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Large waves batter Dawlish, Devon, during high tide.  © Moorefam.

Combining expertise from engineering geology, geochemistry, modelling, GIS and many more disciplines, the team aims to:

  • supply data and knowledge to users that can be used in the analysis of a range of geo-environmental problems
  • explore alternative and new methodologies with internal and external partners, developing existing products and services as well as generating new and innovative ones
  • develop multidisciplinary data products
  • develop dynamic products (i.e temporal or responsive) modelling factors such as impact, resilience, risk and uncertainty using numerical and stochastic techniques, improving the quality and integrity of products and services
  • develop new and innovative methods of data presentation, particularly looking at how to incorporate near real-time data, dynamic process models and 3D geological models and data

Our focus groups include a broad range of members from industry, government, academia and data resellers. Depending on the stage of development of the research and products, meetings will be held around once per year in order to focus initial development needs and then again to direct the type of outputs, format and access requirements. We endeavour to create and deliver a broad range of products suitable for and tailored to stakeholder needs and your input into the development process is key.

We regularly work in partnerships and on collaborative projects such as NERC ERIIP, NERC Innovation, Innovate UK, Pathfinder and European Space Agency. We contribute both scientific and geospatial analytical skills and expertise.

The hazard and resilience modelling team have a broad range of data analytical skills and expertise and are able to provide commissioned services to stakeholders, for example a review of multiple geohazards tailored specifically to a network or asset portfolio. We have carried out work for National Grid, Network Rail, HS2 and others.

We are utilising data-driven techniques to further investigate the vast datasets that we have developed and that we curate. By delving deeper into the datasets and understanding the relationships between them, we are investigating how we might be able to develop and modify various outputs, including contributing to the advancement of existing hazard susceptibility maps. Examples of work in this area include:

  • analysis of the outputs of various clustering algorithms with which to identify inter-relationships between our datasets
  • contrasting data-driven approaches to heuristic methodologies, such as for GeoSure
  • identifying models currently available to investigate space-time processes for applications such as urban hazard modelling


If you want to discover more then please contact Katy Lee.

Our research projects

Several phases of repair to a road in Lincolnshire that had suffered ground movement.

Climatic hazards and natural geological events (CHANGE)

Climate change is an increasingly important issue affecting us all, from housing subsidence to road or pipe damage. This research focuses on the potential effects of climate change on subsidence, and how tools for future scenario forecasting can aid planning and development.

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Beach with pebbles and chalk. Image by Tim Hill from Pixabay 


Coastal vulnerability is an issue in many coastal areas of Great Britain. Understanding the processes and identifying potential geohazards and interdependencies within the coastal zone allows users to mitigate and plan to improve future resilience.

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Mini Excavator. Excavator digs the foundation for the house. Photo credit Avalon_Studio

Land feasibility interrogation tool (LandFIT)

LandFIT is a land suitability assessment tool, for the assessment of conflicting demands on land, appropriate and optimal use for land for planning purposes.

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Groverake Mine, Weardale.

Mining hazard (not including coal)

Mining hazards considers the long and varied legacy of underground extraction of minerals in Great Britain. Previous research has defined the spatial extent of non-coal mining and now the BGS isinvestigating the ‘zone of influence’ around areas of underground mining.

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Riverbed after mudflow in the mountains. Photo credit kiwisoul.

Multi-hazard impact assessment system (MImAS)

Multi-hazards, such as floods causing slope failure or bridge collapse, are increasingly active within our environment and affect power supply, transport, etc. We are developing a multi-hazard impact assessment system to identify locations throughout the UK at greatest risk from the combined effects of multiple natural hazards.

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Flood Protection Sandbags with flooded homes in the background. Photo credit Marc Bruxelle.

Repurposing for emergency service usage (REScUe)

REScUe is repurposing BGS geohazard datasets in conjunction with emergency responders in order to deliver appropriate data for specific situations.

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Non-cohesive alluvial material in river beds can be easily eroded. Copyright © Dex Image PTE.


River scour can occur when the forces imposed by the flow on a sediment particle exceed the stabilising forces acting upon it. This project will provide a tool that helps stakeholders make business decisions about survey, remediation and maintenance of in-river structures, with the aim of filling the gap in current scour modelling by providing a combined geological and hydrological assessment tool using site-specific case studies to build and validate a national to local-scale nested model.

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Harvest grain cereals field. Image by Albrecht Fietz from Pixabay

Suitability and viability of green infrastructure (SVGI)

Green infrastructure is a key component of modern urban environments. This project explores the geological properties and ground conditions that can affect green infrastructure environments.

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Wind farm, Soutra. BGS © UKRI.

BGS products and services: climate change in the geo-environment  

BGS are developing a range of climate-focused datasets to assist with this decision making, providing information that will help you make the right decisions when considering potential future climate impacts.

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Crack in a wall due to subsidence

Geohazard quick reference information sheets

Basic information on what to do and what to avoid doing in the case of landslide, soluble rock or groundwater flooding geohazard events.

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GeoClimate UKCP09 Open Data

GeoClimate UKCP09 Open

Based on medium emissions scenario, provides the most susceptible value for the time periods 2030s, 2050s and 2080s within the grid cell.

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