Sea level rise and coastal erosion: what’s the real impact?
How much of an issue are coastal vulnerabilities and what do we need to consider to increase our resilience to future events?
05/04/2022
In this new series of blogs, the digital products team looks at the coastline of Great Britain, how it is changing and what important factors we should consider in terms of natural hazards, adaptation and resilience.
Coastal resilience is a key issue for our island nation, especially those who live and work around our coastline. The climate is changing, temperatures are increasing and sea-levels are set to rise. In recent years, we have witnessed numerous examples of coastal flooding, cliff falls and damage to infrastructure, businesses and homes during storms. But how much of an issue are these coastal vulnerabilities and what do we need to consider to increase our resilience to future events?
It is difficult to quantify the threat and potential economic impact of coastal erosion and flooding. The Climate Change Committee’s Adaptation Committee estimated in 2018 that, by the 2080s, over 100 000 properties may be in areas at risk from coastal erosion in England alone.
Various reports have been commissioned over recent years to assist in building a clearer picture of the situation and options to reduce this risk. The UK Government’s latest research on exploratory sea-level projections for the UK provides future projection ranges to the year 2300. Under all scenarios, sea level is expected to continue to rise. Estimates range across (approximately):
- 0.5 m to 2.2 m for low (RCP2.6) emissions
- 0.8 m to 2.6 m for medium-low (RCP4.5) emissions
- 1.4 m to 4.3 m for high (RCP8.5) emissions
To provide some context relating to the societal importance of our coastal regions, aside from their natural significance, we can consider some of the findings of a 2019 report by a Select Committee appointed through the House of Lords. This group and the subsequent report had been set up to focus on the regeneration of seaside towns and communities, which included a review of tourism and hospitality. Based on this report and the associated proceedings, the following numbers can be ascribed to our coastal regions:
- more than eight million people live on the coast, in coastal communities (Select Committee on Regenerating Seaside Towns and Communities (2018))
- according to UKHospitality, the sector employs 2.9 million people and generates £130 billion in economic activity
- VisitBritain stated that tourism was worth £127 billion to the British economy (Select Committee meeting).
In the UK, current annual damages from coastal flooding are estimated at over £500 million per year (BAS) and costs are likely to increase under projections of future sea-level rise. Historic assets are also under threat: buried archaeology and historic structures, such as the Godwin Battery on Spurn Point, have already been lost to coastal erosion. The National Trust’s repair bill following the 2013/14 winter storms amounted to some £250 000, with other repairs costing many thousands of pounds.
Our new GeoCoast data product can be used to inform and assist users when responding to coastal adaptation and resilience. GeoCoast is an integrated GIS package of datasets designed to inform and support coastal management and adaptation. It includes information about coastal erosion, sea-level rise and inundation, coastal subsidence and the properties of the geological deposits.
Our next post in this series will look at six areas of changing coastlines around Great Britain and how climate change could affect them.
Join us for our GeoCoast launch event
Join our data products team for a live webinar on the 28 April 2022, and discover more about our new data product to underpin coastal decision making, resilience and adaptation. > Register online
About the author

Kathryn Lee
Geologist and BGS Hazard and Resilience Modelling team leader
Relative topics
You may also be interested in:

GeoCoast Premium
GeoCoast is an integrated GIS package of datasets designed to inform and support coastal management and adaptation.

Coasts and estuaries geohazards
BGS Coasts and Estuaries provides independent and expert geoscientific tools and advice for collaborative decision making to assess different adaptation options to coastal flooding and erosion.

New BGS datasets for coastal management, planning and adaptation in the face of climate change
BGS GeoCoast is a package of geospatial datasets designed to provide information on the geological conditions and constraints around the coastline of Britain.
Related news

Dr Marie Cowan awarded the Energy Group Medal by the Geological Society
18/05/2023
This award is presented annually to individuals with a geoscience background who have made an outstanding contribution to the energy industry.

BGS appoints new members to Science Advisory Committee
17/05/2023
Four new members’ three-year terms begin in June 2023.

AGS file utilities tool: production release
16/05/2023
BGS’s online tool for validating AGS files against the official AGS data format rules and its own NGDC data submission requirements goes live.

BGS releases 10K maps through updated maps portal
16/05/2023
BGS releases an updated maps portal, which allows users to view all publicly available, maps and includes 10 000 and 1:10 560 scale maps for the first time.

BGS maps out priorities with five-year strategy
11/05/2023
BGS publishes its new strategy for 2023 to 2028, ‘Understanding our Earth’.

Improvements to borehole delivery
25/04/2023
BGS releases improvements to its borehole layer on the GeoIndex, which makes access faster and improves quality.

Report identifies areas of the UK prospective for critical raw materials
17/04/2023
Areas from the Highlands to south-west England have the right geology to be prospective for several critical raw materials such as lithium and graphite, according to a new report.

World Mineral Production 2017 to 2021 is now available
14/04/2023
The latest edition of World Mineral Production has been released.

How does public water use influence the amount of phosphorus in the environment?
11/04/2023
New research looks at how phosphorus accumulates in public water systems in the USA.

Scientists discover regions of the UK with greatest potential to use heat from deep thermal waters
30/03/2023
BGS geologists have mapped the UK’s potential to use heat from thermal groundwater deep beneath central and southern Britain.

BGS laboratories become first in UKRI to receive gold LEAF accreditation
28/03/2023
BGS achieved gold certification in the Laboratory Efficiency Assessment Framework (LEAF) accreditation in March 2023.

World Water Day 2023: groundwater photo stories
22/03/2023
A showcase of groundwater use from around the world highlighting how developing groundwater has benefited the lives of many people.