Artificial intelligence is proving a game changer in tracking the Santorini earthquake swarm

As a state of emergency is declared on the Greek island of Santorini, seismologists are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence technology to provide high-resolution images of the ongoing seismic activity, in a bid to enhance short-term forecasting accuracy.

Since the start of the crisis, a team from BGS comprising Margarita Segou, Brian Baptie, Rajat Choudhary, Wayne Shelley and Foteini Dervisi, has been employing machine learning algorithms to detect ten times as many earthquakes as standard techniques, with over 20 000 tremors accurately predicted in the Santorini area alone since 1 December 2024. This approach is allowing geologists to identify for the first time small magnitude earthquakes that were previously undetected using standard approaches.

BGS Seismologist Margarita Segou, who is leading the development of the groundbreaking research, says it has revolutionised the way scientists can learn from seismic activity and predict patterns.

This machine learning technique results in far richer data feeding into short-term forecasts, which can allow experts to track the evolution of events and better advise emergency services and at-risk communities.

Dr Margarita Segou, BGS Seismologist.

These algorithms allowed researchers to first note increased seismic activity across the Santorini region on 26 January 2025. In comparison, standard detection schemes did not register the same increase until 31 January and only picked up around 2000 seismic events in the Santorini area; ten times less than the new approach has detected.

Dr Segou says it is the ability to combine different sources of information more quickly that is at the heart of the advancement.

Through strong international partnerships, we can reprocess past and present data through machine learning and gain a new and priceless insight into the seismic activity in Santorini in previous phases of unrest and its links to the volcanic system.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Santorini is located on the Hellenic volcanic arc at the convergence of the African plate and the Eurasian plate, at a complex tectonic boundary. Currently, seismic events around the island show that seismicity bursts occur almost twice a day, with the tremors lasting for one to two hours.

Dr Segou adds the data is revealing some unique features.

We have evidence that this is fluid-driven, swarm-type seismicity that comes in pulses. This is not unheard of in other volcanic regions; however, this time it is evolving on top of active faults that complicate the expression of seismicity.

It is easy to get a disconnected story when we just look at moderate magnitude seismic events. It is only when we investigate the smaller magnitude events that occur between that we learn of the hidden mechanisms that take place between the large earthquakes.

It is critical that we track whether those pulses become more frequent and how they migrate in space and depth. So far, the largest quake in this swarm has been a 5.2 magnitude.

Dr Margarita Segou.

Contact

For more information, please contact BGS press (bgspress@bgs.ac.uk) or call 07790 607 010.