Future projections for mineral demand highlight vulnerabilities in UK supply chain

Hosted by BGS, the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre (CMIC) has quantified UK demand requirements and global supply challenges up to 2050 for 36 materials important to nine technologies essential to decarbonisation and the energy transition:

• batteries
• electrolysers
• fuel cells
• grid infrastructure
• heat pumps
• nuclear
• photovoltaics
• traction motors
• wind turbines

This has highlighted the vulnerability of the UK in competing for a secure and reliable supply of critical resources.

The newly released foresight studies project that, by 2030, the UK is expected to require between 15 and 40 per cent of current global lithium production and between 10 and 29 per cent of current global graphite production. Compared to 2020 levels, UK demand in 2030 for lithium is expected to increase by between 12 and 45 times the current demand, while graphite demand is projected to grow by between 34 and 43 times. Both materials are essential for rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, which power electric vehicles, consumer electronics and energy storage systems.

Ensuring a secure and stable supply for these materials presents a major challenge. To meet the global demand forecasted by the International Energy Agency, lithium supply alone would need to increase by 32 times by 2030, highlighting the pressure on supply chains and the urgency for secure, diversified, resilient and responsible supply.

The foresight studies, commissioned by the Department for Business & Trade, identified risks that could see bottlenecks in material supply due to limited UK-based supply chains, a reliance on international markets and growing global competition, all of which could have a detrimental impact on the economy.

The approach taken to quantify demand for specific technologies, while also providing a comprehensive overview across various decarbonisation technologies, is unique. This methodology enables the UK to make strategic decisions to enhance the security of the supply chains these technologies depend on.

Dr Evi Petavratzi, foresight study lead at CMIC.

Batteries have been identified as the decarbonisation technology that will see the fastest demand growth in the UK, which will have a knock-on-effect on the amount of materials, including graphite, nickel, lithium, cobalt and manganese, needed to meet this demand. Heat pumps, traction motors and wind turbines will drive demand for copper and rare earth elements (REEs). UK demand for REEs is expected to peak around 2030, before stabilising at approximately 5 per cent of current global supply by 2040, which underscores the critical need for new supply streams to be operational by 2030.

The foresight reports and data can be found on the CMIC website, as can the UK Critical Minerals Assessment, which was released in November 2024.