Scientific report published
BGS was requested by the UK Government to address six questions related to recent scientific research on the hazard and risk from induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale rocks.
22/09/2022 By BGS Press
BGS submitted the report ‘Recent scientific advances in the understanding of induced seismicity from hydraulic fracturing in shales’ to the UK Government on 5 July 2022. This was in response to a Government request for a review of new scientific evidence focusing on the period from November 2019 until the present.
The report has been externally peer-reviewed by independent experts both within and outside the UK. The report draws on existing peer-reviewed data and research from academic journals, as well as on information from relevant technical reports from regulators and public bodies.
The UK Government requested BGS address six questions related to recent scientific research on the hazard and risk from induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale rocks. For more information about these questions, please refer to the letter from the Secretary of State.
This report concludes that forecasting the occurrence of large earthquakes and their expected magnitude is complex and remains a scientific challenge. As a result, our ability to evaluate and mitigate risks from hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity and predict the occurrence of larger earthquakes during hydraulic fracturing operations is also a challenge.
This report also concludes there are new seismic data analysis methods that could help to manage the risk of seismic activity from hydraulic fracturing in shales. Further work is needed to develop these methods and incorporate them in risk assessments.
If you have any enquiries on the findings of the scientific report, please email our Press Office.
If you have any other queries then please contact the BEIS press office.
Further information about our research is also available on our website:
Frequently asked questions
BGS submitted the report ‘Recent scientific advances in the understanding of induced seismicity from hydraulic fracturing in shales to the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy on 5 July 2022. The report was prompted by a Government request for BGS to conduct a review of science about seismic activity associated with hydraulic fracturing of shales to extract hydrocarbons, focusing on work published between November 2019 and the present.
BGS was requested by the UK Government to address six questions related to recent scientific research on the hazard and risk from induced seismicity* during the hydraulic fracturing of shale rocks. More information about these questions can be found in a published letter from the Secretary of State of the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy.
*induced seismicity: earthquakes that are caused by human activity, such as hydraulic fracturing and mining.
In order to answer the questions set out by the Secretary of State of the Department of Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, the report draws on existing data and peer-reviewed research from academic journals and information from relevant technical reports from regulators and public bodies. This includes:
- published examples of induced seismicity related to hydraulic fracturing
- analytical and numerical modelling studies
- geological investigations
- hazard and risk assessments
- our wider understanding of earthquakes in general
No drilling of any further test wells or seismic monitoring took place.
This report has been externally peer-reviewed by independent experts within and outside the UK. The peer-review process was required to independently assess the quality and validity of the work.
The report set out to answer the questions set out by the Secretary of State for the Department of Business, Energy &Industrial Strategy. The report also sets out recommendations where further study is needed.
This report concludes that forecasting large magnitude earthquakes and understanding the mechanisms behind earthquake occurrence remain a scientific challenge. This is the case for tectonic, natural and induced earthquakes.
This report also concludes that methods have been developed that use geological and geophysical data, including real-time analysis of operational data. These methods may help evaluate the potential for induced seismicity and therefore better manage risks both before and during hydraulic fracturing operations. More work is needed to develop these methods and incorporate them into risk assessments. Further research to bring new insights that may reduce uncertainties and improve the mitigation of risks is also required.
A full summary and further information about the scientific content of the review is included within the report.
The report submitted to the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy answers six specific questions from the terms of reference related to recent scientific research on the hazard and risk from induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale rocks. While this may help inform any decision about the lifting of the moratorium, our report does not make any conclusions about whether the moratorium should be lifted.
The report concludes that more measurements from boreholes in areas of shale gas potential will improve assessment of risks prior to, and during any hydraulic fracturing operations. For example, recent research demonstrates the importance of geomechanical modelling to identify the faults that are most likely to rupture during operations. These models require accurate mapping of subsurface faults, robust estimates of stress state and formation pore pressures, and knowledge of the mechanical properties of subsurface rocks.
Relative topics
Related news

World Water Day 2023: groundwater photo stories
22/03/2023
A showcase of groundwater use from around the world highlighting how developing groundwater has benefited the lives of many people.

New seabed geology maps for offshore Yorkshire
14/03/2023
Offshore Yorkshire is the latest map to be released in BGS’s series of fine-scale digital seabed maps.

New BGS karst report released for Hampshire and Wiltshire
10/03/2023
The report details the evidence for karst processes in areas of soluble rocks that have not previously been considered karstic.

Dr Corinna Abesser appointed BGS Policy Director
08/03/2023
Dr Abesser will be supporting BGS staff in the translation of their science outputs to inform policy and regulation as well as advising senior management on policy-related issues.

Melinda Lewis awarded prestigious Whitaker Medal for outstanding contribution to hydrogeology
01/03/2023
Melinda Lewis, BGS Honorary Research Associate, has been awarded the Geological Society Whitaker Medal, recognising outstanding long-term contributions to hydrogeology.

BGS welcomes two new board appointments for 2023
22/02/2023
Prof Carol Frost, professor emerita of the faculty of geology and geophysics at the University of Wyoming, and Dr Jenny Pyper, former CEO of the Utility Regulator for Northern Ireland and interim head of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, will take up their positions on the BGS Board from 1 March 2023.

Six BGS datasets for assessing shrink–swell subsidence hazards
17/02/2023
Shrink–swell subsidence is one of the most significant geological hazards affecting the UK. BGS has six datasets to help assess the problem.

The Kahraman Maraş earthquake sequence, Turkey/Syria
14/02/2023
Two large earthquakes occurred within hours of each other on 6 February 2023.

One year on: reflections on the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption
18/01/2023
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcano in January 2022 has highlighted a global unpreparedness for the impacts from large-scale global events.

New geological map of the Maltese Islands published
19/12/2022
The new map, commissioned by Malta’s Continental Shelf Department, is the first update for almost 30 years.

Work complete on 1000 solar panels at BGS
07/12/2022
More than 1000 energy-saving solar panels have been installed at BGS’s headquarters in Keyworth, Nottinghamshire.

Updated radon map for Great Britain published
02/12/2022
The UK Health Security Agency and BGS have published an updated radon potential map for Great Britain.