Warnings for Scottish farmers and distillers as new data indicates climate change may double number of droughts

Farmers and whisky distillers could both be left increasingly high and dry as new research reveals how climate change is increasingly affecting water availability. In some areas, scientists found that surface water scarcity events, where river levels drop to significantly low levels, could increase dramatically from one every five years to every other year, or even more often. This potentially means there could be more bans on using these waters.

The data shows that April and May and late August into September are expected to become noticeably drier, potentially affecting crop yields and livestock gains.

Use of groundwater could provide a solution to increasing surface water shortages, but more information is needed on where and when such resources could prove a viable option. Summer groundwater levels have already been falling across several parts of the country and areas with low groundwater storage capacity and decreasing groundwater recharge are likely to become increasingly vulnerable to drought.

To inform this work, the British Geological Survey has developed a new framework to enable better estimation of groundwater resilience in Scotland. It helps to highlight those areas where groundwater is likely to be more, or less, resilient to future climate change.

This research has highlighted the risk of future water scarcity in Scotland and the potentially significant impact this could have on water users. Groundwater could form a key component of adaptation strategies, but more data and research is needed to understand how this can be achieved sustainably and equitably at a catchment scale.

Dr Kirsty Upton, BGS Senior Hydrogeologist.

Other recommendations from the research include:

• using more efficient irrigation methods
• avoiding the introduction of more water-demanding crops
• increasing water harvesting
• better storage of water during wetter months
• increased monitoring to allow for improved coordination of water resource-use across catchments
• a greater role for river catchment partnerships to coordinate use of water resources at landscape scale
• cross-sector coordination to prepare for future water extremes

provision of adaptation advice and funding

We found that, for many, water scarcity is already an increasing issue. At critical times of the year, even short periods of water shortage could lead to vegetable and fruit crop failure.

Some are already taking measures to adapt, particularly in the distilling sector, where technical advances could help reduce their need for water for cooling, but many could be at risk if they don’t take more action.

Our work suggests more information about resources would help them , as would information adaptation strategies they can take, as well as help funding these and collaborating across catchments over resources.

Dr Miriam Glendell, The James Hutton Institute.

The study, which was led by The James Hutton Institute, was commissioned by Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Water, which is based at the institute, with partners at Scotland’s Rural College, the University of Aberdeen and BGS.