Julia is a volcanologist specialising in explosive volcanic eruptions and associated hazards and impacts on all scales, from local communities to national and global. Her main interests lie in understanding hazard interactions and the unfolding impacts on communities and the built environment. In particular, Julia is interested in the communication and translation of complex science to support decision-making. Julia’s recent research focuses on the implications of volcanic hazards on international tourists; physical vulnerability of buildings to tephra fall, and exploring cause-and-effect relationships during multi-hazard events.
Julia Crummy’s Biography
- 2013 – ongoing : BGS Volcanologist
- 2009 – 2013 : PhD (University of Leeds): Holocene Evolution of the Colima Volcanic Complex, Mexico
- 2007 – 2009 : BGS Offshore Data Manager
- 2003 – 2007 : Exploration geologist working on gold, silver and base metal projects in Peru, Ecuador, Sweden and Dominican Republic; Christopher James Gold Corporation, International Minerals Corporation, MinMet PLC
- 1999 – 2003 : University of Aberdeen – BSc Geoscience Hons
Research interests
- Explosive volcanism – Field mapping and stratigraphic correlation of tephra fall deposits; using petrology and geochemistry to understand past and potential future explosive activity
- Natural hazards – Volcanic tephra fall hazard analysis using numerical modelling, scenario-based approaches and expert elicitation; qualitative scenario development to understand how events might unfold, hazard interactions and associated impacts
- Disaster Risk Reduction – Understanding the impacts of volcanic and related hazards: physical, systemic and social vulnerability and exposure of communities and infrastructure; exposure and vulnerability of international tourists to natural hazards
- Communication of complexity – Exploring creative ways to communicate and translate complex science for decision-making, for example using ArcGIS StoryMaps – Myriad_eu dashboard » Storylines repository
Current projects and collaboration
- 2021 – 2025: MYRIAD-EU – Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the EU
- 2025 – ongoing: EXPOSED – Physical and social exposure to seismic and volcanic threats in Bandung, Indonesia
- 2022 – ongoing: Geohazards and Risks in Indonesia
- 2023 – 2025: Review and update of the UNDRR-ISC Hazard Information Profiles – Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs): 2025 version | UNDRR
- 2014 – 2021: Rift Volcanism: Past, Present, Future. Understanding tephra fall hazard in Ethiopia (RiftVolc)
- 2019 – 2021: Volcanic and other natural hazards in Iceland and implications for International tourists: case study of UK tourists in Iceland
ORCID: 0000000226668397
Key papers
- Hussain, E, Watt, S, Crummy, J, et al. 2025. White Paper: UK-Indonesia partnerships for advancing geohazard science for disaster risk assessment in Indonesia. British Geological Survey, 27pp. Available at: https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/540305
- Schlumberger J, Warren A, Daloz A, Geurts D, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Ma L, Padrón-Fumero N, … Crummy J, et al., 2025. Developing multi-risk DRM pathways — Lessons from four European case studies. Climate Risk Management. Volume 50, ISSN 2212-0963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2025.100753
- White, C J, Adnan, M S G, Arosio, M, Buller, S, Cha, Y, Ciurean, R, Crummy, J M, Duncan, M, Gill, J, Kennedy, C, Nobile, E, Smale, L, and Ward, P J. 2025. Review article: Towards multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators – a review and recommendations for development and implementation, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4263–4281.
- Cocuccioni, S, Pittore, M, Zebisch, M, Schneiderbauer, S, Shepherd, T G, Casartelli, V, Crummy, J, and Pedde, S. 2025. Risk Storylines: a community-led discussion between Disaster and Climate Science. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 106 (8), pp. E1717–E1723.
- Way, L, Biggs, J, Zheng, W, Lazecky, M, Dualeh, E W, Wright, T, Grandin, R, Hauck, A, Loughlin, S, Crummy, J, and Lewi, E. 2025. Real-time satellite monitoring of the 2024–2025 dyke intrusion sequence at Fentale-Dofen volcanoes, Ethiopia. Bulletin of Volcanology, 87 (11), p.100.
- Osman, S, Crummy, J, Thomas, M, and Carver, S. 2024. Probabilistic hazard analyses for a small island: methods for quantifying tephra fall hazard and appraising possible impacts on Ascension Island. Bulletin of Volcanology, 86 (10), p.82.
- Jenkins, S F, Mee, K, Engwell, S L, Loughlin, S C, Faria, B V E, Yirgu, G, … and, Crummy, J. 2024. Assessing volcanic hazard and exposure in a data poor context: Case study for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Cabo Verde. Progress in Disaster Science, 23, 100350.
- Osman, S, Thomas, M, Crummy, J, Sharp, A, and Carver, S. 2023. Laboratory tests to understand tephra sliding behaviour on roofs. Journal of Applied Volcanology, 12 (1), p.11.
- Osman, S, Thomas, M, Crummy, J, and Carver, S. 2022. Investigation of geomechanical properties of tephra relevant to roof loading for application in vulnerability analyses. Journal of Applied Volcanology, 11 (1), p.9.
- Tierz, P, Clarke, B, Calder, E S, Dessalegn, F, Lewi, E, Yirgu, G, Fontijn, K, Crummy, J M, Bekele, Y, and Loughlin, S C. 2020. Event trees and epistemic uncertainty in long‐term volcanic hazard assessment of Rift Volcanoes: the example of Aluto (Central Ethiopia). Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 21 (10), e2020GC009219.
- Crummy, J M, Savov, I P, Loughlin, S C, Connor, C B, Connor, L, and Navarro-Ochoa, C. 2019. Challenges of determining frequency and magnitudes of explosive eruptions even with an unprecedented stratigraphy. Journal of Applied Volcanology, 8(1), p.3.
Key reports
- Crummy, J, Banks, V, Ciurean, R L, Duncan, M, Smale, L, Loughlin, S, et al. 2025. Online repository of storylines on multi-risk decision-making. Zenodo.
- United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, & International Science Council. 2025. Update of the UNDRR-ISC hazard information profiles. Report. Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Paris, France, International Science Council
- Duncan, M, Smale, L, Crummy J M, Ciurean R, Napier, A, and Sainath Chintham, et al. 2022. WIKI-style online crowdsourcing platform of multi-hazard, multi-risk methods, models, and tools. Zenodo
- Crummy, J M, Smith, N, Lawrie, K, Bow, J, Gillespie, M, Ciurean, R, and Loughlin, SC. 2021. BGS SIGMA for Disaster Risk Reduction: data collection and analysis toolkit for physical vulnerability assessment in multi-hazard environments. British Geological Survey Internal Report, IR/21/040.
- Crummy, J M, Vye-Brown, C, Marchant, B, Leeming, K, and Loughlin, S C. 2021. Estimation of the frequency and magnitude of potential future eruptions from Ethiopian volcanoes through expert elicitation. British Geological Survey Internal Report, IR/21/013.
- Winson, A, Crummy, J, Mee, K, Boon, D, Ciurean, R, Dashwood, C, Garcia-Bajo, M, Sampson, C, and Silva, V. 2019. METEOR: hazard footprints for Nepal and Tanzania. Report M6.1/P. Nottingham, UK, British Geological Survey, 126pp. (OR/19/066)
- Crummy, J M, Marchant, B, Loughlin, S C, Engwell, S, Tierz, P, Cuba, D M, and Vye-Brown, C. 2018. Elicitation of frequency and magnitude of potential future explosive eruptions at Corbetti and Aluto volcanoes, Ethiopia BGS Open File Report (OR/18/061) , 27pp.
- Vye-Brown, C, Crummy, J, Smith, K, Mruma, A, and Kabelwa, H. 2014. Volcanic hazards in Tanzania BGS Open Report (OR/14/005) , 29pp.
Chapters
- Crummy, J M, Savov, I P, Navarro-Ochoa, C, and Morgan, D J. 2019. Holocene Eruption History and Magmatic Evolution of the Colima Volcanic Complex in Varley, N R, Connor C B and Komorowski, J C, eds., Volcán de Colima. Active volcanoes of the world. Springer.
Published outputs
Skills
- Volcanic hazard and impacts analysis
- Numerical modelling (Tephra2; tephraProb, VolcGIS)
- ArcGIS; QGIS
- Communication of complex science
- Interdisciplinary research; working and carrying out research in cross-cultural and international environments
- Facilitation (expert elicitation; international meetings)
- Trained Local Welfare Officer
- Trained Mental Health First Aider
- Public engagement
- Positive, upbeat and open-minded person who loves working with others as part of a team!
- Member of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI)
- Member of the UK Alliance for Disaster Research
- Editorial board: Bulletin of Volcanology
- Reviewer for Journal of Applied Volcanology; Geological Society of London; Volcanica; Frontiers in Science