{"id":29133,"date":"2020-05-04T07:48:02","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T07:48:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/?post_type=research_project&#038;p=29133"},"modified":"2024-02-07T13:09:47","modified_gmt":"2024-02-07T13:09:47","slug":"modelling-of-volcanic-ash","status":"publish","type":"research_project","link":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/","title":{"rendered":"Modelling of volcanic ash"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\t<section class=\"hero-section hero-section-with-social\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1>Modelling of volcanic ash in the atmosphere<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>BGS Research &mdash; Volcanoes <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<div class=\"social-wrap social-wrap-inline-them\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sea-background-f\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span>Share this article<\/span><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/\"><span class=\"icon-facebook\"><span class=\"hidden\">Facebook<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Modelling%20of%20volcanic%20ash&#038;url=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/\"><span class=\"icon-twitter\"><span class=\"hidden\">Twitter<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   onclick=\"javascript:void( (function() {var e=document.createElement('script' );e.setAttribute('type','text\/javascript' );e.setAttribute('charset','UTF-8' );e.setAttribute('src','\/\/assets.pinterest.com\/js\/pinmarklet.js?r='+Math.random()*99999999);document.body.appendChild(e)})());\"  href=\"javascript:void(0);\"><span class=\"icon-pinterest\"><span class=\"hidden\">Pinterest<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/wa.me?text=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/\"><span class=\"icon-whatsapp\"><span class=\"hidden\">WhatsApp<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   href=\"mailto:?subject=Modelling%20of%20volcanic%20ash&#038;body=Volcanic%20ash%20in%20the%20atmosphere%20is%20a%20hazard%20particularly%20for%20civil%20aviation.%20Atmospheric%20dispersion%20models%20are%20used%20to%20predict%20volcanic%20ash%20transport.%20%20(https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/)\"><span class=\"icon-mail\"><span class=\"hidden\">Email<\/span><\/span><\/a><a href=\"#\" data-copy=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/modelling-of-volcanic-ash\/\" class=\"copy-url-on-click\"><span class=\"icon-link\"><span class=\"hidden\">Copy Link<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-bgs-blocks-content-container content-section\"><div class=\"container\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-12\">\n<p>Volcanic ash in the atmosphere is a dangerous hazard from volcanic eruptions, particularly for civil aviation. This is because volcanic ash can significantly damage aircraft and their turbines in particular. Mitigation actions for aviation safety are currently based on exclusion zones for air traffic, which can lead to airport closures and flight diversions or cancellations. The consequent travel disruption can potentially affect many countries for prolonged periods causing big economic losses, as dramatically demonstrated by the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull volcano in Iceland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exclusion zones are defined through the numerical simulation of ash dispersion and these models are currently the object of extensive research in volcanology.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure  class=\"img-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Volcanic_plume_P731736.jpg\" data-toggle=\"lightbox\" data-footer=\"&lt;p&gt;Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull eruption, Iceland, May 2010. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-gallery=\"gallery_30660\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Volcanic_plume_P731736-150x150.jpg\" class=\"lazy-blur\" alt=\"Volcanic plume\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Volcanic_plume_P731736.jpg\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption sm-line\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/info-caption.svg\" alt=\"Information icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-text\"><p>Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull eruption, Iceland, May 2010. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"expand-box expand-box-top\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Volcanic_plume_P731736.jpg\" data-toggle=\"lightbox\" data-footer=\"&lt;p&gt;Eyjafjallaj\u00f6kull eruption, Iceland, May 2010. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-gallery=\"gallery_30660\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/expand.svg\" alt=\"Expand icon\"><\/a><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p>Predictions of volcanic ash transport are made using atmospheric dispersion models. Several models are available, often as free open-source codes. These models may differ in terms of the simulation approaches and the physical modelling of the processes with the dispersing volcanic plume. However, they are all designed to reproduce the following steps characterising the evolution of a volcanic ash cloud:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol><li>the emission of volcanic particles and the generation of an ash cloud (volcanic source characterisation)<\/li><li>the advection-diffusion of the ash cloud as the result of its interaction with the atmospheric wind field and turbulence<\/li><li>the sedimentation and deposition of the particles from the ash cloud due to several processes, such as the gravitational settling and entrapment of the particles into rain and snow<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>We have designed and created a fully automated system to perform both scenario-based and user-requested simulations of ash dispersion. For a selected volcano, the system quantifies the eruption source parameters (e.g. the emission rate of volcanic particles) either based on observations (when available) from volcano monitoring networks or on most likely scenarios based on knowledge of the volcano. For the latter, the system uses data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/eruption-source-parameters\/\">eruption source parameters database<\/a>, hosted on BGS webpages. For the former, the system activates <a aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jvolgeores.2018.07.003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">REFIR<\/a>, which is a tool co-developed with partners from the University of Iceland and in collaboration with other partners in the framework of the <a aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/futurevolc.hi.is\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FUTUREVOLC<\/a> project, to process observational data to obtain source parameters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Once the source is characterised, dispersion simulations are automatically performed using two open-source dispersion models: <a href=\"https:\/\/gitlab.com\/fall3d-distribution\/v8.0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"broken_link\">FALL3D<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ready.noaa.gov\/HYSPLIT.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">HYSPLIT<\/a>. These models have been selected because they represent two examples of different modelling approaches (Eulerian versus Lagrangian), enabling us to explore the possible range of variability of modelling outcomes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dispersion simulations are carried out using meteorological data of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/data-access\/model-data\/model-datasets\/global-forcast-system-gfs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">NOAA Global Forecast System<\/a> (GFS) numerical weather prediction model. Output of volcanic ash concentration in the atmosphere and deposition on the ground are then processed with a set of Python plotting scripts developed by BGS Informatics and now publicly available on the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/BritishGeologicalSurvey\/ash-model-plotting\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"undefined (opens in a new tab)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BGS GitHub<\/a> repository.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Scenario simulations are carried out automatically four times per day (at 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC) at a selected volcano. Figures 1 and 2 show an example of a graphical output obtained for an eruption scenario at Reykjanes (Iceland). <\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t\t<div  class=\"owl-carousel carousel-primary-color carousel owl-theme thumbs-carousel-js\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"item\"><figure  class=\"img-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Graphical_output_Reykjanes.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Volcanic particle deposition plot\" \/><figcaption class=\"caption \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/info-caption.svg\" alt=\"Information icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-text\"><p>Figure 1: the plot shows the total mass of volcanic particles present in the atmosphere measured from the sea level to the top of the ash cloud. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"item\"><figure  class=\"img-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Graphical_output_Reykjanes_2.jpg\" class=\"attachment-medium size-medium\" alt=\"Volcanic particle deposition plot\" \/><figcaption class=\"caption \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/info-caption.svg\" alt=\"Information icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-text\"><p>Figure 2: the plot shows the total mass of volcanic particles deposited on the ground at the same time from the beginning of the eruption. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\n<p>With this system we aim to simplify the process of ash dispersion simulations and investigate the influence of model selection and source parameter uncertainty on the ash cloud predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Contact<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want to discover more then please contact <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/people\/loughlin-susan-2\/\">Fabio Dioguardi<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<section   id=\"latest-content-6220-block_5e7b0d7d9c15e\" class=\"grid-section  primary-background   \" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row header-of-section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2>You may also be interested in<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row grid-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-lg-6 col-12\">\n\t<div class=\"cards cards-orizontal-sm  cards-find-more  cards-bordered\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/\" class=\"media-wrap\">\n\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/feature_volcanology-150x150.jpg\" class=\"lazy-blur wp-post-image\" alt=\"Yasur volcano - Anna Hicks\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/feature_volcanology.jpg\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"info-wrap\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"info\">\n\t\t\t\t<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/\">Volcanology<\/a><\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Our scientists lead research projects and work in partnerships around the world to improve our understanding of volcanic processes, hazards and risks.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/\">Show more<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-lg-6 col-12\">\n\t<div class=\"cards cards-orizontal-sm  cards-find-more  cards-bordered\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/ash-collection\/\" class=\"media-wrap\">\n\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/feature_MPLQ239S1_009-150x150.jpg\" class=\"lazy-blur wp-post-image\" alt=\"Large ash aggregate - halite and glass\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/feature_MPLQ239S1_009.jpg\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"info-wrap\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"info\">\n\t\t\t\t<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/ash-collection\/\">Ash collection<\/a><\/h4>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>In the event of an eruption in Iceland volcanic emissions may affect the UK. If they do, we need you to collect observations and samples to help us learn about the nature of the eruption.<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/geology-projects\/volcanoes\/ash-collection\/\">Show more<\/a>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Volcanic ash in the atmosphere is a hazard particularly for civil aviation. Atmospheric dispersion models are used to predict volcanic ash transport. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":29249,"parent":28305,"menu_order":4,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"8160,8391,37491,37410,37470,8183","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"region":[],"topic":[],"purpose":[],"area":[],"challenge":[],"challenge_topic":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Modelling of volcanic ash - British Geological Survey<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Volcanic ash in the atmosphere is a hazard particularly for civil aviation. 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