{"id":63026,"date":"2020-11-30T17:01:14","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T17:01:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/?p=63026"},"modified":"2022-08-18T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2022-08-18T13:00:00","slug":"developing-new-seismic-hazard-maps-for-the-uk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/news\/developing-new-seismic-hazard-maps-for-the-uk\/","title":{"rendered":"Developing new seismic hazard maps for the UK"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Around 200 to 300 earthquakes are detected and located in the UK every year. Most of these are relatively small (with a local magnitude<\/a> (ML) of less than 3.0) and are not felt by people. Larger earthquakes that are more noticeable happen less frequently \u2013 we get around 3 earthquakes between 3.0 and 3.9 ML each year. Earthquakes that may cause minor damage occur less than once a year with events the size of the 2008 Market Rasen earthquake<\/a> (5.2 ML) happening roughly every 38 years.<\/p>\n\n\n

\"Seismic<\/a>
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Seismic hazard map: peak ground acceleration (PGA) on rock for a 475 year return period. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t

\"Expand<\/a><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n

Historical observations dating back several centuries confirm that damaging earthquakes in the UK are relatively rare but that they do occur. For this reason, it is important to understand and quantify the hazard they pose to the built environment. The last hazard maps for the UK were published in 2007. Over the last couple of years, a small team at BGS have been working on revising these using larger data sets and some new tools and methods in order to update the advice given to engineers about designing structures for earthquake resistance in the UK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seismic hazard is computed using a model that consists of two parts: one that characterises earthquake occurrence (where they occur and their frequency of occurrence, sometimes referred to as the seismic source characterisation model) and another that describes the ground shaking that may result from potential future earthquakes (the ground motion characterisation component). The model is based on historical and instrumental observations of earthquakes and their effects, and information and data relating to the tectonics and geological structure of the region being considered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The modelling must also try to capture the uncertainty relating to both the natural randomness of the earthquake process (the aleatory variability<\/a>) and to limited data and knowledge about different aspects of earthquakes and their effects (the epistemic uncertainty<\/a>).  This is a particular challenge in low seismicity regions like the UK where we only have limited data from the larger earthquakes that may be of engineering significance.  This includes instrumental recordings of the ground shaking caused by such earthquakes (often referred to as strong motion data). Although the BGS seismic network is now well-equipped to record such data, these earthquakes just don\u2019t happen very often so our dataset is relatively small.<\/p>\n\n\n\t\t\t\t