{"id":5737,"date":"2025-10-15T11:15:55","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T10:15:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/?page_id=5737"},"modified":"2025-11-07T14:39:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T14:39:27","slug":"hydrological-outlook-uk","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/","title":{"rendered":"Hydrological Outlook UK"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\t<section class=\"hero-section hero-section-with-social\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1>Hydrological Outlook UK<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<div class=\"social-wrap social-wrap-inline-them\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sea-background-f\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span>Share this article<\/span><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\"><span class=\"icon-facebook\"><span class=\"hidden\">Facebook<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=Hydrological%20Outlook%20UK&#038;url=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\"><span class=\"icon-twitter\"><span class=\"hidden\">Twitter<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   onclick=\"javascript:void( (function() {var e=document.createElement('script' );e.setAttribute('type','text\/javascript' );e.setAttribute('charset','UTF-8' );e.setAttribute('src','\/\/assets.pinterest.com\/js\/pinmarklet.js?r='+Math.random()*99999999);document.body.appendChild(e)})());\"  href=\"javascript:void(0);\"><span class=\"icon-pinterest\"><span class=\"hidden\">Pinterest<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/wa.me?text=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\"><span class=\"icon-whatsapp\"><span class=\"hidden\">WhatsApp<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   href=\"mailto:?subject=Hydrological%20Outlook%20UK&#038;body=%20(https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/)\"><span class=\"icon-mail\"><span class=\"hidden\">Email<\/span><\/span><\/a><a href=\"#\" data-copy=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\" class=\"copy-url-on-click\"><span class=\"icon-link\"><span class=\"hidden\">Copy Link<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-bgs-blocks-content-container content-section\"><div class=\"container\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-12\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Working with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www2.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/waterresources\/hydrologicalOutlook.html#partners\">partners<\/a>, we have developed a forecast for river flows and groundwater levels over the coming months \u2014&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hydoutuk.net\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hydrological Outlook UK<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The outlook will be published monthly and focus on conditions over the coming three months, but also looks further into the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecasts of this type are already produced on an operational basis in number of countries, for example, the USA and Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The project has involved bringing together information on current and forecast weather conditions, soil moisture, river flows and groundwater levels, and uses a number of modelling methods to explore possible future hydrological conditions. The work has also inspired other modelling approaches and prompted new lines of scientific research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Groundwater level forecasting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The BGS contribution has been to use 25&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ceh.ac.uk\/sci_programmes\/water\/future%20flows\/documents\/futureflowsandgroundwaterlevels_pn6_rgroundwater_finaloct2012.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">groundwater models<\/a>&nbsp;developed to forecast groundwater levels over the coming three months across the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The models are driven using a number of possible future climate scenarios (an ensemble) produced by the UK Met Office. This allows us to produce a probabilistic forecast of groundwater levels for either one or three months into the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By analysing the model simulations, we are able to determine the likely change in groundwater levels across most of the principal aquifers in the UK with the summarised results incorporated in&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hydoutuk.net\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Hydrological Outlook UK<\/a>&nbsp;on a monthly basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Groundwater is also vital to the health of Scotland&#8217;s environment, supporting surface-water ecosystems, helping to dilute and assimilate contaminants, and mitigating flooding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Partners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ceh.ac.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Centre for Ecology and Hydrology<\/a>&nbsp;(CEH)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/organisations\/environment-agency\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Environment Agency<\/a>&nbsp;(EA)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Met Office<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sepa.org.uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Scottish Environment Protection Agency<\/a>&nbsp;(SEPA)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/naturalresourceswales.gov.uk\/search\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Natural Resources Wales<\/a>&nbsp;(NRW)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dardni.gov.uk\/rivers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rivers Agency Northern Ireland<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"cta-section  sea-background-e \">\n\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"row md-row\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t<h2>Need more information?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"btn-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/people\/mackay-jonathan\/\"  class=\"button primary-background   \">Contact Jonathan Mackay<\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"parent":44,"menu_order":3,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"1","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5737","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"BGS Groundwater\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-07T14:39:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/hydrological-outlook-uk\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/hydrological-outlook-uk\\\/\",\"name\":\"Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-15T10:15:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-07T14:39:27+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/hydrological-outlook-uk\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/hydrological-outlook-uk\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/hydrological-outlook-uk\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Resources\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/water-resources\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Hydrological Outlook UK\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/\",\"name\":\"BGS Groundwater\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"BGS Groundwater\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/BGS_Groundwater_pos-object-text-clip.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/BGS_Groundwater_pos-object-text-clip.svg\",\"width\":472,\"height\":98,\"caption\":\"BGS Groundwater\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bgs.ac.uk\\\/groundwater\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater","og_url":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/","og_site_name":"BGS Groundwater","article_modified_time":"2025-11-07T14:39:27+00:00","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/","url":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/","name":"Hydrological Outlook UK - BGS Groundwater","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-10-15T10:15:55+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-07T14:39:27+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/hydrological-outlook-uk\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Resources","item":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/water-resources\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Hydrological Outlook UK"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/","name":"BGS Groundwater","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#organization","name":"BGS Groundwater","url":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/BGS_Groundwater_pos-object-text-clip.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2026\/05\/BGS_Groundwater_pos-object-text-clip.svg","width":472,"height":98,"caption":"BGS Groundwater"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5737"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7108,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/5737\/revisions\/7108"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/44"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}