{"id":4814,"date":"2025-08-22T14:00:05","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T13:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/?page_id=4814"},"modified":"2025-11-10T12:57:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:57:22","slug":"climate-change-nitrate-concentration","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/","title":{"rendered":"The effect of climate change on nitrate concentration in groundwater"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t\t<section class=\"hero-section hero-section-with-social\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"hero-info\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1>The effect of climate change on nitrate concentration in groundwater<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<div class=\"social-wrap social-wrap-inline-them\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"sea-background-f\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span>Share this article<\/span><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/\"><span class=\"icon-facebook\"><span class=\"hidden\">Facebook<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=The%20effect%20of%20climate%20change%20on%20nitrate%20concentration%20in%20groundwater&#038;url=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/\"><span class=\"icon-twitter\"><span class=\"hidden\">Twitter<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   onclick=\"javascript:void( (function() {var e=document.createElement('script' );e.setAttribute('type','text\/javascript' );e.setAttribute('charset','UTF-8' );e.setAttribute('src','\/\/assets.pinterest.com\/js\/pinmarklet.js?r='+Math.random()*99999999);document.body.appendChild(e)})());\"  href=\"javascript:void(0);\"><span class=\"icon-pinterest\"><span class=\"hidden\">Pinterest<\/span><\/span><\/a><a target=\"_blank\"  href=\"https:\/\/wa.me?text=https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/\"><span class=\"icon-whatsapp\"><span class=\"hidden\">WhatsApp<\/span><\/span><\/a><a   href=\"mailto:?subject=The%20effect%20of%20climate%20change%20on%20nitrate%20concentration%20in%20groundwater&#038;body=%20(https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/)\"><span class=\"icon-mail\"><span class=\"hidden\">Email<\/span><\/span><\/a><a href=\"#\" data-copy=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate-contamination-of-groundwater\/climate-change-nitrate-concentration\/\" class=\"copy-url-on-click\"><span class=\"icon-link\"><span class=\"hidden\">Copy Link<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\n\n\n<section class=\"wp-block-bgs-blocks-content-container content-section\"><div class=\"container\"><div class=\"row\"><div class=\"col-12\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The potential effects of climate change on nitrate concentrations in the UK&#8217;s groundwater are complex, since nitrate leaching and migration through the aquifer could be affected. We reviewed these potential effects for the UK (Stuart et al., 2011) using a source\u2013pathway\u2013receptor framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Changes to nitrate inputs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The main inputs of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/quality\/diffuse-pollution\/nitrate\/\">nitrate to UK groundwater<\/a> are from agricultural sources. Changes in temperature, precipitation quantity and distribution, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will affect the agricultural nitrate source term (inputs) through changes in both soil processes and agricultural productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This has been well studied in terms of crop yields and potential changes in cultivars, crop type and the northwards extension of cropping area, but the effects of these changes remain difficult to predict. Studies of soil processes suggest climate change is likely to lead to increased nitrate leaching from the soil under future climate scenarios. Non-agricultural sources, such as urban areas and atmospheric deposition, are also expected to be affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Changes to pathways by which nitrate enters groundwater<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The implications for the rate of nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of these changes are not yet fully understood, but predictions suggest that the leaching rate may increase under future climate scenarios. Climate change will affect the hydrological cycle, with changes to recharge, groundwater levels and resources, and flow processes. Pathways by which nitrate enters groundwater will therefore be modified.<\/p>\n\n\n<figure  class=\"img-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/geograph-3042843-by-Colin-Smith.jpg\" data-toggle=\"lightbox\" data-footer=\"&lt;p&gt;Chalk stream in the upper Itchen Valley beside Cheriton Mill, near Winchester, southern England. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-gallery=\"gallery_51947\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/geograph-3042843-by-Colin-Smith.jpg\" class=\"lazy-blur\" alt=\"A clear stream flows through a lush grassy field\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/geograph-3042843-by-Colin-Smith.jpg\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"caption \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/info-caption.svg\" alt=\"Information icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"caption-text\"><p>Chalk stream in the upper Itchen Valley beside Cheriton Mill, near Winchester, southern England. BGS \u00a9 UKRI.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"expand-box expand-box-top\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2025\/08\/geograph-3042843-by-Colin-Smith.jpg\" ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/groundwater\/wp-content\/themes\/bgs\/img\/expand.svg\" alt=\"Expand icon\"><\/a><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The predicted impacts are variable, but many predictions suggest an overall decrease in recharge and a fall in water levels and almost all predict an enhanced seasonal variation in water levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impacts for receptors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These changes will impact on concentrations of nitrate in abstracted water and other receptors, such as surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands. The implications for nitrate leaching to groundwater as a result of climate changes are not yet well enough understood to be able to make useful predictions without more site-specific data. The few studies that address the whole cycle show likely changes in nitrate leaching ranging from limited increases to a possible doubling of aquifer concentrations by 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mitigation or adaptation?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any climate change-induced increases in nitrate inputs to groundwater may be masked by nitrate reductions from improved agricultural practices, but a range of adaptation measures needs to be identified. Future impact may also be driven by economic responses to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Further reading<\/h2>\n\n\n<div  class=\"accordions\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"acc-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<button class=\"acc-top secondary-background icon-arrow button no-btn\"><span class=\"button-content\" tabindex=\"-1\">References<\/span><\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"acc-body sea-background-e\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Ascott, M,\u00a0Gooddy, D, and\u00a0Mulcahy, A. 2023.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nora.nerc.ac.uk\/id\/eprint\/535818\/\">Analysis of climate variability and change in observational groundwater quality data<\/a>. <em>British Geological Survey Commissioned Report<\/em> CR\/23\/017N. (Nottingham, UK: British Geological Survey.)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Ascott, M,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Lewis, M,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Gooddy, D, <\/span><\/span><span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Mackay, J,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Smedley, P L, and<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"person nerc_int_name\"><span class=\"person_name\">Cartwright, C. <\/span><\/span>2022. <a href=\"https:\/\/nora.nerc.ac.uk\/id\/eprint\/533586\/\">Impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater quality in England: a scoping study<\/a>. <em>British Geological Survey Open Report<\/em> OR\/22\/076. (Nottingham, UK: British Geological Survey.)<\/p>\n<p>Bell, V A, Naden, P S, Tipping, E, Davies, H N, Carnell, E, Davies, J A C, Dore, A J, Dragosits, U, Lapworth, D J, Muhammed, S E, Quinton, J N, Stuart, M, Tomlinson, S, Wang, L, Whitmore, A P, and Wu, L. 2021.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.145813\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Long term simulations of macronutrients (C, N and P) in UK freshwaters<\/a>.\u00a0<em>Science of The Total<\/em>\u00a0Environment, Vol. 776, 145813. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.145813<\/p>\n<p>Stuart, M, Gooddy, D C, Bloomfield, J P, and Williams, A T.\u00a0\u00a02011.\u00a0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2011.04.016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A review of the impact of climate change on future nitrate concentrations in groundwater of the UK<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<em>Science of the Total Environment<\/em>, Vol. 409(15), 2859\u20132873. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2011.04.016<\/p>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n\n\n<section class=\"cta-section  sea-background-e \">\n\t<div class=\"container\">\n\t\t<div class=\"row md-row\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\t\t\t\t<h2>Need more information?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"btn-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bgs.ac.uk\/people\/lapworth-daniel\/\"  class=\"button primary-background   \">Contact Dan Lapworth<\/a><\/div>\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"parent":70,"menu_order":4,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"1","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4814","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - 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