Background publications

The Storm Risk Mitigation projects are at an early stage and have not yet published peer-reviewed papers. For the time being, the following are suggested background reading for those interested in the science we are studying.

Numerical Weather Prediction

Chagnon, J. M. and S. L. Gray. Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. , 135, 1392-1408, 2009.

Irvine, E. A., S. L. Gray, J.  Methven, Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure? Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1396-1407, 2010.

Knippertz, P., J. M. Chagnon, A. Foster, L. Lathouwers, J. H. Marsham, J. Methven and D. J. Parker,Research flight observations of a prefrontal gravity wave near the southwestern UK. Weather, 65, 293-297, 2010.

Marsham,  J. H.,  K. A. Browning, J. C.  Nicol et al.,  Multi-sensor observations of a wave beneath an impacting rear-inflow jet in an elevated mesoscale convective system. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. , 136, 1788-1812, 2010.

Parton, G. A.,  G. Vaughan, E. G. Norton, K. A. Browning and P. A. Clark. Wind profiler observations of a sting jet. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 135, 663-680, 2009.

Parton, G. , A. Dore and  G. Vaughan. A climatology of mid-tropospheric mesoscale strong wind events as observed by the MST Radar, Aberystwyth. Met. Apps. DOI: 10.1002/met.203, 2010.

Climate Science

Baldwin, M.P., Stephenson, D.B. and and Jolliffe, I.T. (2009): Spatial weighting and iterative projection methods for EOFs, J. Climate, 22, pp 234-243.

Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges and E. Roeckner, 2006: Storm Tracks and Climate Change, J. Climate., 19, 3518-3543.

Bengtsson L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?, J. Climate, 22, 2276-2301.

Beniston, M., Stephenson, D.B., Christensen, O.B., Ferro, C.A.T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylha, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Scholl, R., Semmler, T. and Woth, K. (2007): Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, 81 (Supplement 1), pp 71-95

Blackburn, M., J. Methven and N. Roberts, 2008: Large-scale context for the UK floods in Summer 2007. Weather, 63(9), 280-288.

Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins and M. Blackburn, 2009: The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. Part I: Land-sea contrast and orography.  J. Atm. Sci., 66, 2539-2558.

Brayshaw, D.J., T. Woollings and M. Vellinga, 2008: Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC, J. Clim., 22, 3146-3155.

Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins and M. Blackburn, 2009: The storm track response to idealised SST perturbations in an aquaplanet GCM. J. Atm. Sci., 65, 2848-2860.

Broer, H. and R. Vitolo, 2008: Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models. Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. B, 10(2-3), 401-419.

Catto, J, Shaffrey, L.C. and Hodges K.I., 2010: Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones? J. Climate, 23, 1621-1635, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI3318.1

Dacre. H. F. and S. L. Gray, 2009: The spatial distribution and evolution characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones. Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, Doi:10.1175/2008MWR2491.1

Dacre, H. F. and S. L. Gray, 2006: Life-cycle simulations of low- level frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain. Q. J. R. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2171-2190.

Felici, M., V. Lucarini, A. Speranza, and R. Vitolo, 2007: Extreme value statistics of the total energy in an intermediate-complexity model of the midlatitude atmospheric jet. Part ii: Trend detection and assessment. J. Atmos. Sci., 64(7), 2159-2175.

Felici, M., V. Lucarini, A. Speranza, and R. Vitolo, 2007: Extreme value statistics of the total energy in an intermediate-complexity model of the midlatitude atmospheric jet. Part i: Stationary case. J. Atmos. Sci., 64(7), 2137-2158.

Gray, S. L. and H. F. Dacre, 2006: Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms using a climatology of extratropical cyclones. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 1119-1137.

Hodges, K. I., 2008, Confidence Intervals and Significance Tests for Spherical Data Derived from Feature Tracking, Mon. Weather Rev., 136, pp 1758-1777.

Hoskins, B. J., and K. I. Hodges, 2002: New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 1041-1061.

Hoskins, B. J. and K. I. Hodges, 2005: A New Perspective on Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks, J. Clim., 18, 4108-4129.

Jolliffe, I.T. and Stephenson, D.B. (2008): Proper Scores for Probability Forecasts Can Never Be Equitable, Monthly Weather Review, 136, No. 4., 1505-1510.

Lucarini, V., A. Speranza, and R. Vitolo. Parametric smoothness and self-scaling of the statistical properties of a minimal climate model: what beyond the mean field theories?, 2007: Phys. D, 234(2), 105- 123.

Palmer, T.N., G.J. Shutts, R. Hagedorn, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T. Jung and M. Leutbecher, 2005: Representing Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Prediction. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 33, 163-194.

Palmer, T.N., F.-J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Rodwell, A. Weisheimer, 2008. Towards Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts. Bull. Am Met. Soc., 89, 459-470.

Rodwell M. and Palmer, T.N., 2007: Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 129-146.

Shaffrey, L.C. and co-authors, 2009: UK-HiGEM: The New UK High Resolution Global Environment Model. Model description and basic evaluation, J. Climate, 22, 1861-1896.

Shaffrey, L.C. and Sutton, R.T., 2006: Bjerknes Compensation and the Decadal Variability of Energy Transports in a Coupled Climate Model. J. Climate, 19, 1167-1181.

Seierstad, I.A., Stephenson, D.B., and Kvamsto, N.G. (2007): How useful are teleconnection patterns for explaining variability in extratropical storminess?, Tellus A, 59 (2), pp 170-181.

Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, B. Hoskins, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller and J. Slingo. Towards a New Generation of World Climate Research and Computing Facilities. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., In print.

Simpson, I.R., M. Blackburn and J.D. Haigh, 2009: The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations.  J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1347-1365.

Sparrow, S.N., M. Blackburn and J.D. Haigh, 2009: Annular Variability and Eddy-Zonal Flow Interactions in a Simplified Atmospheric GCM: Part I - Characterization of High and Low Frequency Behaviour. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3075-3094.

Stephenson, D.B., B. Casati, C. A. T. Ferro, C. A. Wilson (2008): The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, Meteorological Applications, Special Issue: Forecast Verification, 15, 41-50.

Stephenson, D.B., Coelho, C.A.S. and Jolliffe, I.T. (2008): Two extra components in the Brier Score Decomposition, Weather and Forecasting, 23, No. 4., pp. 752-757.

Stephenson, D.B. and V. Pavan, 2003: The North Atlantic Oscillation in coupled climate models: a CMIP1 evaluation, Climate Dynamics, 20, 4: 381-399.

Vitolo, R., Holland, M.P. and Ferro, C.A.T., 2009: Robust Extremes in Chaotic Deterministic Systems, Chaos, 19(4), pp 43-127.

Vitolo, R.. D. B. Stephenson, I. M. Cook, and K. Mitchell-Wallace, 2009: Serial clustering of intense European storms. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18(4),411-424.

Vitolo, R., P. Ruti, A. dell'Aquila, M. Felici, V. Lucarini, and A. Speranza, 2009: Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application. Tellus A, 61(1), 35-49.

Woollings, T (2008). The vertical structure of anthropogenic zonal-mean atmospheric circulation change, Geophys. Res. Lett.,35, L19702.

Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, D. Hassell and K. Hodges. (2009). Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a Regional Climate Model, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0554-3.

Woollings, T., A. Hannachi, B. Hoskins and A. Turner (2010). A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing, J. Climate, 23, 1291-1307.

Woollings, T.J., Hoskins, B.J., Blackburn, M., and Berrisford, P., 2008: A new Rossby wave-breaking interpretation of the NAO. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609-626.


Bates, P.D., Horritt, M.S. and Fewtrell, T.J. (2010). A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two dimensional flood inundation modelling.  Journal of Hydrology, 387, 33-45. (

Cloke HL, Jeffers C, Wetterhall F, Pappenberger F, Byrne T, Lowe J (2010) Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment UK with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD. Hydrological Processes, 24, 3476–3489. (

Cloke HL and Pappenberger F (2009) Ensemble Flood Forecasting: A Review. Journal of Hydrology 375, 613-626. (

Demeritt D, Nobert S, Cloke H L, Pappenberger F (2010) Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting. Meteorological Applications 17(2), 209-222

Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Bates, P.D., Freer, J. and Beven, K. (2010).  Floodplain mapping: a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55 (3), 364-376. (

He Y, Wetterhall F, Bao H, Cloke HL, Li Z, Pappenberger F, Hu Y,Manful D, Huang Y (2010) Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July–September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study. Atmospheric Science Letters 11(2), 132-138. (

Horritt, M., Bates, P., Fewtrell, T., Mason, D. and Wilson, M. (2010). Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Water Management, 163 (6), 273-281. (

Kuiry, S.N., Sen, D.J. and Bates, P.D. (2010). Coupled 1D–Quasi-2D Flood Inundation Model with Unstructured Grids.  ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 136 (8), 493-506. (

Leedal, D., Neal, J., Beven, K., Younger, P. and Bates, P. (2010). Visualisation approaches for communicating real-time flood forecasting level and inundation information.  Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3 (2), 140-150. (

Neal, J., Fewtrell, T., Bates, P. and Wright, N. (2010). A comparison of three parallelisation methods for 2D flood inundation models.  Environmental Modelling and Software, 25 (4), 398-411. (

Neal, J., Schumann, G., Bates, P., Buytaert, W., Matgen, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2009). A data assimilation approach to discharge estimation from space. Hydrological Processes, 23 (25), 3641-3649. (

Nobert S, Demeritt D, Cloke HL (2010) Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden. Journal of Flood Risk Management 3 72–79. (

Mason, D.C., Speck, R., Devereux, B., Schumann, G., J.-P., Neal, J.C. and Bates, P.D. (2010).  Flood detection in urban areas using TerraSAR-X. IEEE Transactions in Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 48 (2), 882-894. (

Pappenberger F, Cloke HL, Balsamo G-P, Oki T (2010) Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system. International Journal of Climatology 30, 2155–2174.(

Prestininzi, P., Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G. and Bates, P. (2011). Selecting the appropriate hydraulic model structure using low-resolution satellite imagery.  Advances in Water Resources, 34, 38–46. (

Schumann, G. Bates, P.D., Horritt, M., Matgen, P. and Pappenberger, F. (2009). Progress in integration of remote sensing derived flood extent and stage data and hydraulic models.  Reviews of Geophysics, 47, RG4001. (

Schumann, G., Di Baldassarre, G. and Bates, P.D. (2009). The utility of spaceborne radar to render flood inundation maps based on multialgorithm ensembles.  IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, 47 (8), 2801-2807. (

Schumann, G., Di Baldassarre, G., Alsdorf, D.E. and Bates, P.D. (2010). Near real-time flood wave approximation on large rivers from space: application to the River Po, Northern Italy. Water Resources Research, 46, paper no. W05601, 8pp (

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This site is hosted by the British Geological Survey but responsibility for the content of the site lies with the STORM Risk Mitigation project not with the British Geological Survey, Questions, suggestions or comments regarding the contents of this site should be directed to Emily Crane