The DIAMET project aims to improve our ability to forecast mesoscale structures of cyclonic storms. DIAMET stands for diabatic influences on mesoscale structures in extratropical storms.
Strong winds and heavy rain are two of the first things to come to mind when talking about extreme weather events. In the UK such weather commonly occurs in cyclonic storms, which we experience in all seasons but are more frequent in autumn and winter.
Windstorms such as Jeanette in 2002 and Erwin in 2005 are each estimated to have caused around £1bn of damage over Northern Europe. The extensive flooding in the UK at Tewksbury and Cockermouth also resulted from cyclonic storms. Thus it is very important that such storms are accurately forecast.
Although cyclonic storms are generally well forecast by modern weather forecasting models, the same is not so true of the details within them – and it is in the details that the extremes of weather are found. Meteorologists refer to such detail as mesoscale structures, and they include familiar concepts such as fronts as well as more exotic phenomena like sting jets (the cause of the destruction in the two windstorms mentioned above).
The DIAMET project seeks to improve the forecasting of these structures by focusing on key processes in the energy balance of the storms: the feedback between cloud processes and the dynamics, and the transfer of heat, momentum and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean.
DIAMET has three main components:
Norris, J., Vaughan, G. and Schultz, D. M. (2013), Snowbands over the English Channel and Irish Sea during cold-air outbreaks. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 139: 1747–1761. doi: 10.1002/qj.2079
David M. Schultz and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz, 2013: Using Frontogenesis to Identify Sting Jets in Extratropical Cyclones. Weather and Forecasting, 28, 603–613. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00126.1
Martínez-Alvarado, O., Joos, H., Chagnon, J., Boettcher, M., Gray, S. L., Plant, R. S., Methven, J. and Wernli, H. (2014), The dichotomous structure of the warm conveyor belt. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140: 1809–1824. doi: 10.1002/qj.2276
Martínez-Alvarado, O. and Plant, R. S. (2014), Parametrized diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140: 1742–1755. doi: 10.1002/qj.2254
Cook, P. A. and Renfrew, I. A. (2014), Aircraft-based observations of air–sea turbulent fluxes around the British Isles. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2345
Baker, L. H., Rudd, A. C., Migliorini, S., and Bannister, R. N.: Representation of model error in a convective-scale ensemble prediction system, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 21, 19-39, doi:10.5194/npg-21-19-2014, 2014.
Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Laura H. Baker, Suzanne L. Gray, John Methven, and Robert S. Plant, 2014: Distinguishing the Cold Conveyor Belt and Sting Jet Airstreams in an Intense Extratropical Cyclone. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 2571–2595. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00348.1
Gray, S. L., C. M. Dunning, J. Methven, G. Masato, and J. M. Chagnon (2014), Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2979–2987, doi:10.1002/2014GL059282.
Jesse Norris, Geraint Vaughan, and David M. Schultz, 2014: Precipitation Banding in Idealized Baroclinic Waves. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 3081–3099. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00343.1
Methven, J. (2014), Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1002/qj.2393
Principal Investigator: Professor Geraint Vaughan, University of Manchester
Storm Risk Mitigation is a NERC-funded research programme
See the Storms pages on the NERC website.