South Asian precipitation, a seamless assessment

The full title of this project is South Asian precipitation, a seamless assessment (SAPRISE).

Background to the project

The Indian summer monsoon provides about 80% of annual rainfall to around a billion people in South Asia and variations in its timing, intensity and duration have a dramatic impact on society. The weather and climate in the South Asian region is influenced the Indian and remote ocean basins via teleconnections to phenomena such as El Niño. Aerosol particles are also key component of the South Asian atmosphere due to the prevalence of cooking fires over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and dust blown from local and remote deserts. Key tools to understand variations in S. Asian precipitation are new climate models that simulate the interactions between the different teleconnections and aerosols, and new observations, especially those from satellites.

Objectives

The main aims of the project are to advance our understanding of the physical processes that control the Indian monsoon and its variations on time scales from seasons to centuries. We will utilize the latest numerical model simulations and hindcasts, particularly those from CMIP5, and integrations with the latest version of the Met Office Hadley Centre model, HadGEM3. A seamless approach will link seasonal, decadal and centennial variability and change via understanding of physical processes.

Publications

The effect of increased convective entrainment on Asian monsoon biases in the MetUM general circulation model
2014. Bush, S. J., Turner, A. G., Woolnough, S. J., Martin, G. M. and Klingaman, N. P. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2371

Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming
2014. Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., van Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M.J., Wu, L. England, M.H., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E. and Jin F-F. Nature Climate Change 4, 111–116. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2100

Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming
2013. Cai, W., Zheng, X-T., Weller, E., Collins, M., Cowan, T., Lengaigne, M., Yu, W. and Yamagata, T. Nature Geoscience 6, 999–1007. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2009.

Observational challenges in evaluating climate models
2013. Collins, M., AchutaRao, K., Ashok, K., Bhandari, S., Mitra, A.K., Prakash, S., Srivastava, R. and Turner, A. Nature Climate Change 3, 940–941. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2012.

Seasonal intercomparison of observational rainfall datasets over India during the southwest monsoon season
2014. Prakash, S., Mitra, A. K., Momin, I. M., Rajagopal, E. N., Basu, S., Collins, M., Turner, A. G., Achuta Rao, K. and Ashok, K. International Journal of Climatology. DOI:10.1002/joc.4129

Agreement between monthly land rainfall estimates from TRMM-PR and gauge-based observations over South Asia
2014. Prakash, S., Mitra, A.K., Momin, I.M., Rajagopal, E.N. and Basua, S. Remote Sensing Letters, 5 (6). DOI:10.1080/2150704X.2014.934401.

Revisiting the Indian summer monsoon-ENSO links in the IPCC AR4 projections: A cautionary outlook
2013. Roxy, M., Patil, N., Aparna, K. and Ashok, K. Global and Planetary Change, 104, 51–60. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.02.003.

Comparison of Experimental and Modeled Absorption Enhancement by Black Carbon (BC) Cored Polydisperse Aerosols under Hygroscopic Conditions
2012. Shamjad, P.M., Tripathi, S.N., Aggarwal,S.G.,Mishra, S.K.,Joshi, M., Khan, A. Sapra, B.K., Ram, K. Environmental Science and Technology, 46 , 8082–8089. DOI:dx.doi.org/10.1021/es300295v.

Variability and Trends of aerosol properties over Kanpur, northern India using AERONET data (2001-10)
2012. Kaskaoutis, D.G., Singh, R.P., Gautam, R., Sharma, M., Kosmopoulos, P.G., Tripathi, S.N. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 024003. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024003.

Stratospheric AOD after the 2011 eruption of Nabro volcano measured by lidars over the Northern Hemisphere
2012. Sawamura, P., Vernier, J P, Barnes, J E, Berkoff T A , Welton E J, Alados-Arboledas, L, Navas-Guzman F, Pappalardo G, Mona, I, Madonna F, Lange D, Siard M, Godin-Beekmann S, Payen G, Wang Z, Hu S, Tripathy S N, Cordoba-Jabonero C, Hoff R M. Environmental Research Letters, 7, 034013. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034013.

Inferring aerosol types over the Indo-Gangetic Basin from ground based sunphotometer measurements
2012. Srivastava, A K, Tripathi S N, Dey, S., Kanawade V P, Tiwari S. Atmospheric Research, 109-110, 64-75. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.02.010

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century
2012. K.R.Sperber, H.Annamalai, L-S.Kang, A.Kitoh, A.Moise, A.Turner, B.Wang and T.Zhou. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2711–2744. DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1607-6

Project members

Prof Mat Collins, University of Exeter

Dr Indrani Roy, University of Exeter

Dr B. Bhaskaran, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Alberto Arribas, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Viju John, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Richard Levine, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Gill Martin, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Sean Milton, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Jane Mulchay, Meteorological Office Hadley Centre

Dr Andy Turner, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology

Dr Richard Allan, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology

Prof Ellie Highwood, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology

Dr Liang Guo, University of Reading, Department of Meteorology

Prof Krishna AchutaRao, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi

Dr Sagnik Dey, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi

Dr D.R. Pattanaik, India Meteorological Department (IMD)

Dr E.N. Rajagopal, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dr Raghu Ashrit, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dr Gopal Iyengar, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dr Ashis K. Mitra, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dr John P. George, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Dr Vikram M. Mehta, Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Gujarat

Dr Satyendra Bhandari, Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Gujarat

Dr Bhashi H. Vaid, Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Gujarat

Mr Dhaval Prajapati, Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Gujarat

Dr Rohit Srivastava, Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research (ICCSIR), Gujarat

Dr K. Ashok, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

Dr Jayasree Revadekar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

Mr Sudhir Sabade, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune

Prof S.N. Tripathi, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur

Prof P.C. Pandey, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur

Dr Mihir Kumar Dash, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kharagpur

Tamara Janes, Met Office

Dr Amanda Lindsay, Met Office

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