The Changing Water Cycle projects are at an early stage and have not yet published peer-reviewed papers. For the time being, the following are suggested background reading for those interested in the science we are studying.

Ackerley, D., Highwood E, Frame D et al (2009) Changes in sulphate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations, J. Clim., 20, 5421-5432

Ackerley, D., Highwood, E., Frame, D. et al (2009) Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulphur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the platform. J. Geophys., Res., 114 Article Number: D01203

Allan, R. P. (2011), Human influence on rainfall, Nature, 470, 344-345.

Allan, R. P. , B. J. Soden, V. O. John, W. Ingram, P. Good (2010), Current Changes in Tropical Precipitation, Environmental Research Letters, in press;

Allan, R. P. and B. J. Soden (2007), Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L18705.

Allan, R. P. and B. J. Soden (2008), Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes, Science, 321, (5895) p.1481-1484

Allan, R. P. and B. J. Soden (2008), Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes, Science, 321, 1481 – 1484;

Allan, R. P. and I. I. Zveryaev (2011), Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007, Int. J. Climatol., 31, p.337-348

Ambrosino, C., R.E. Chandler and M.C. Todd (2011): Southern African Monthly Rainfall variability: an analysis based on generalized linear models. J. Climate, in press (doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3924.1).

Beniston, M., Stephenson, D.B., Christensen, O.B., Ferro, C.A.T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylha, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Scholl, R., Semmler, T. and Woth, K. (2007): Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, 81 (Supplement 1), pp 71-95

Best M.J., Cox P.M. , Warrilow D., 2005. Determining the optimal soil temperature scheme for atmospheric model applications. Boundary Layer Met., 114, 111-142.

Betts R.A., Cox P.M. & Woodward F.I., 2000. Simulated responses of potential vegetation to doubled-CO2 climate change and feedbacks on near-surface temperature Global Ecology and Biogeography, 9, 171-180

Betts R.A., Cox P.M., Harris C., Huntingford C., Jones C.D., 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazon forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 157-175.

Betts R.A., Cox P.M., Lee S.E. & Woodward F.I., 1997. Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations. Nature, 387, 796-799

Black, E. (2009) The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics for Jordan and Israel Atmospheric Science Letters, 10 192-200

Black, E. and R. Sutton (2007) The influence of oceanic conditions on the hot European summer of 2003 Volume Climate Dynamics 28 pp53-66

Black, E., D. Brayshaw and C. Rambeau (in press) Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A

Blyth, E.M, Gash, J.H.C., Lloyd, A., Pryor, M., Weedon, G.P. and Shuttleworth, J.W. (in press). Evaluating the JULES land surface model energy fluxes using FLUXNET data. Journal of Hydrometeorology

Blyth, E.M., J.G. Evans, J.W. Finch, R. Bantges and R.J. Harding, (2006) Spatial variability of the English agricultural landscape and its effect on evaporation. Forest Ag Met, 138, 19-28

Blyth, E.M., W.J Shuttleworth and R.J. Harding, (2009) Summary of the GEWEX international symposium on global land-surface evaporation and climate. Hydrological Processes, 23, 3411-3412

Brierley, C, Collins, M (2009) Climate Science: Insight despite imperfection. Nature Geoscience, 2, 315-316

Bulygina N, McIntyre N, Wheater H. 2011 Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall-runoff model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes. Water Resources Research. doi:10.1029/2010WR009240.

Butler, A.P., Mathias, S.A., Gallagher, A.J., Peach, D.W. and Williams, A.T. Analysis of flow processes in fractured chalk under pumped and ambient conditions. Hydrogeology Journal, (2009), 17(8), 1849-1858, doi: 10.1007/s10040-009-0477-4.

Canadell J., Ciais P., Cox P., Heimann M., 2004. Quantifying, understanding and managing the carbon cycle in the next decades. Climatic Change, 67, 147-160.

Coelho, C.A.S., Ferro, C.A.T., Stephenson, D.B. and Steinskog, D.J. (2008): Methods for exploring spatial and temporal variability of extreme events in climate data, Journal of Climate, 21, pp 2072-2092

Collins, M, et al. (in press) A comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles: Model errors, feedbacks and forcings. Climate Dynamics, in press;

Collins, M., et al (in press) The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific and El Niño. Nature Geoscience, in press;

Collins, M., T. J. Osborn, S. F. B Tett, et al. (2002). A comparison of the variability of a climate model with paleotemperature estimates from a network of tree-ring densities. Journal of Climate 15(13): 1497-1515.

Cowling, S.A., Jones, C.D. and Cox, P.M., 2009. Greening the terrestrial biosphere: simulated feedbacks on atmospheric heat and energy circulation. Climate Dynamics, 32, 287-299.

Cox P.M., Betts R.A., Bunton C.B., Essery R.L.H., Rowntree P.R. & Smith J. , 1999. The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity. Climate Dynamics, 15, 183-203

Cox P.M., Betts R.A., Collins M., Harris C., Huntingford C., Jones C.D., 2004. Amazon dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 137-156.

Cox P.M., Betts R.A., Jones C.D., Spall S.A. & Totterdell I.J., 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature , 408, 184-187

Cox P.M., Huntingford C. & Harding R.J., 1998. A canopy conductance and photosynthesis model for use in a GCM land surface scheme. J. Hydrology, 212-213, 79-94

Cox, P.M., Harris, P., Huntingford C., Betts, R.A., Collins, M., Jones, C.D., Jupp, T.E., Marengo J., Nobre, C., 2008. Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution. Nature, 453, 212-216.

Crossley J.F., Polcher J., Cox P.M., Gedney N. & Planton S., 2000. Uncertainties linked to land-surface processes in climate change simulations. Climate Dynamics , 16, 949-961

Essery R.L.H., Best M.J., Betts R.A., Cox P.M. & Taylor C.M., 2003. Explicit representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in a GCM land-surface scheme. J. Hydrometorol. , 4 , 530-543

Fischer, E. M, et al. (2007). European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium. Geophysical Research Letters 34(5).

Fisher, R., McDowell, N., Purves, D., Moorcroft, P., Sitch, S., Cox, P.M., Huntingford, C., Meir, P, Woodward, F.I., 2010. Modelling vegetation responses to climate change using a second-generation dynamic vegetation model: uncertainties due to ecological scale limitations. New Phytologist, 187, 666-681.

Friedlingstein, P., Defresne J.-L., Cox P.M. & Rayner P., 2003. How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus , 55B , 692-700

Friend A.D. & Cox P.M., 1995. Modelling the effects of atmospheric CO2 on vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Agric. For. Met. , 73, 285-295

Galbraith, D., Levy, P.E., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M., Williams, M., Meir, P., 2010. Mechanisms of Amazonian Forest 'Die-back' in three Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs): warming is more critical than drying. New Phytologist, 187, 647-665.

Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C., Cox, P.M., 2008. Amazon Basin climate under global warming: the role of the sea surface temperature. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0037.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. Pollack, J. Smerdon, E. Zorita (2007): Detection of human influence on a new 1500yr climate reconstruction, J. Climate, 20, 650-666.

Hegerl G. C., T. Crowley, W. T. Hyde and D. Frame (2006): Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions of the last seven centuries, Nature, 440, doi:10.1038/nature04679.

Hegerl, G. C., F. Zwiers, S. Kharin and Peter Stott (2004): Detectability of anthropogenic changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. J. Climate, 17, 3683-3700.

House, J.I., Huntingford, C., Knorr, W., Cornell, S.E., Cox, P.M., Harris, G.R., Jones, C.D., Lowe, J.A., and Prentice, I.C., 2008. What do recent advances in quantifying climate and carbon cycle uncertainties mean for climate policy?, Environmental Research Letters, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044002

Hughes A.G., Vounaki T., Peach D.W., Ireson A.M., Jackson C.R., Butler A.P., Bloomfield J.P., Finch J., and Wheater, H.S. In press. Flood risk from groundwater: examples from a Chalk catchment in southern England. Journal of Flood Risk Management.

Huntingford, C., Fisher, R.A., Mercado, L., Booth, B.B.B., Sitch, S., Harris, P.P., Cox, P.M., Jones, C.D., Betts, R.A., Malhi, Y., Harris, G.R., Collins, M., Moorcroft, P., 2008. Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon `dieback'. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B., doi:10.1098/rstb.2007.0028.

Jones C.D. & Cox P.M. , 2001. Constraints on the temperature sensitivity of global soil respiration from the observed interannual variability in atmospheric CO2. Atmospheric Science Letters , doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0041

Jones C.D., Collins M., Cox P.M. & Spall S.A., 2001. The carbon cycle response to ENSO: a coupled climate-carbon cycle model study. Journal of Climate , 14 , 4113-4129

Jones C.D., Cox P.M. & Huntingford C., 2003. Uncertainty in climate-carbon cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Tellus , 55B , 692-700

Jones C.P., Cox P.M. , Essery R.L.H., Roberts D.L., Woodage M., 2003. Strong carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett. , 30 , 1479, doi:10.1029/2003GL016867

Jones, C.D., Cox, P.M., Huntingford, C., 2006, Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints. Tellus B, 58, 603-613.

Josey, S.A. and Marsh, R. (2005). Surface freshwater flux variability and recent freshening of the North Atlantic in the eastern subpolar gyre. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, (C5), C05008-[17pp].

Jupp, T.E., Cox P.M., Rammig, A., Thonicke, K., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., 2010. Development of probability density functions for future Amazonian rainfall. New Phytologist, 18, 682-693.

Lambert, F. H. and J. C. H. Chiang, Control of land-ocean temperature contrast by ocean heat uptake, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 13, L13704, 2007. [6][pdf] [7][online supplement]

Lambert, F. H. and M. J. Webb, Dependency of global mean precipitation onsurface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 35, L16706, 2008. [3][pdf] [4][online supplement]

Lambert, F. H. and M. R. Allen, Are changes in global precipitation constrained by the tropospheric energy budget?, J. Clim., Vol 23, 499-517, 2009. [2][pdf]

Lambert, F. H., A. R. Stine, N. Y. Krakauer and J. C. H. Chiang, How much will precipitation increase with global warming?, EOS trans., Vol. 89, No. 21, doi: 10.1029/2008EO210001, 2008. [5][pdf]

Lambert, F. H., M. J. Webb and M. M. Joshi, The relationship between land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing, J. Clim., Vol 24, 3239-3256, 2011. [1][pdf]

Lavers, D.A., Prudhomme, C., Hannah, D.M., 2010. Large-scale climatic influences on precipitation and discharge for a British river basin. Hydrol. Process. 24, 2555–2563.

Lavers, D.A., Prudhomme, C., Hannah, D.M., 2010. Large-scale climate, precipitation and British river flows: Identifying hydroclimatological connections and dynamics. Journal of Hydrology. 395 Issues 3-4 Pages 242-255

Luke, C.M., and Cox. P.M., 2011. Soil carbon and climate change: from the Jenkinson effect to the compost bomb instability. European Journal of Soil Science, 62, 5-12.

Maraun D, Osborn TJ and Gillett NP (2008) United Kingdom daily precipitation intensity: improved early data, error estimates and an update to 2006. Int. J. Climatol. 28, 833-842.

Marsh, R., de Cuevas, B.A., Coward, A.C., Jacquin, J., Hirschi, J.J.-M., Aksenov, Y., Nurser, A.J.G. and Josey, S.A. (2009). Recent changes in the North Atlantic circulation simulated with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean models. Ocean Modelling, 28, (4), 226-239.

Mathias, S.A., Butler, A.P., Jackson, B.M. and Wheater, H.S., Transient simulations of flow and transport in the Chalk unsaturated zone, J. Hydrology (2006), 330, 10–28. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol. 2006.04.010.

McDonagh, Marsh, R. and others (2005). Decadal changes in the South Indian Ocean thermocline. Journal of Climate, 18, (10), 1575-1590.

Shaffrey, L.C., Vidale, P.L. et al, 2009: UK-HiGEM: The new UK High Resolution Global Environment Model. Model description and basic evaluation. J. Climate, 22, 1861-1896.

Mercado, L.M., Bellouin, N., Sitch, S., Boucher, O., Huntingford, C., Wild, M. and Cox, P.M., 2009. Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink. Nature, 458, 1014-1018.

Mercado, L.M., Huntingford, C., Gash, J.H.C., Cox, P.M., Jogireddy, V., 2007. Improving the representation of radiation interception and photosynthesis for climate model application. Tellus B, 59, 553-565.

Rammig, A., Jupp, T.E., Thonicke, K., Tietjen, B., Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Cox, P.M., 2010. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback. New Phytologist, 187, 694-706.

Sherwood, S. Ingram, W., Tsushima, I., Satoh, M. Roberts, M., Vidale, P.L. and O'Gorman, P.A. 2010: Relative humidity changes in a warmer climate, J. Geoph. Res. Atmospheres. doi:10.1029/2009JD012585, in press.

Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P.E., Lomas M., Piao, S.L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C.D., Prentice, I.C., Woodward, F.I., 2008. Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology, 14, 1-25.

Tett, S. F. B. et al. (2007). The impact of natural and anthropogenic forcings on climate and hydrology since 1550. Climate Dynamics 28(1): 3-34.

Upton K.A. and Jackson C.R. (2011). Simulation of the spatio-temporal extent of groundwater flooding using statistical methods of hydrograph classification and lumped parameter models. Hydrological Processes. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7951

van der Schrier G, Briffa KR, Jones PD and Osborn TJ (2006) Summer moisture variability across Europe. J. Climate 19, 2818-2834.

Vidale P.L., D. Lüthi, R. Wegmann, C. Schär, 2007: European summer climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble. Clim. Change, 81, 1, pg(s). 209-232. [doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9218-z]

Wheater, H. S., Peach, D. W. and Binley, A. 2007 Characterising Groundwater Dominated Lowland Catchments in the UK Lowland Catchment Research Programme (LOCAR), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Vol 11 (1), 108-124.

Wheater, H.S., Neal, C. and Peach, D. (2006) Hydro-ecological functioning of the Pang and Lambourn catchments, UK: An introduction to the special issue. Journal of Hydrology, 330, 1-9.

Woolnough, S. J., F. Vitart and M. A. Balmaseda (2007) The role of the ocean in the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Implications for MJO prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 117-128.

Woolnough, S.J., P. N. Blossey, K.-M. Xu, P. Bechtold, J.-P. Chaboureau, T. Hosomi, S. F. Iacobellis, Y. Luo, J. C. Petch, R. Y. Wong and S. Xie., (2010) Modelling convective processes during the suppressed phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation: Comparing single-column models with cloud-resolving models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 333-353.

Zveryaev, I. I. and R. P. Allan, (2010), Summertime Precipitation Variability over Europe and its Links to Atmospheric Dynamics and Evaporation, J Geophys. Res., 115, D12102

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