PAGODA (Horyuji PAGODA in full) stands for “Hydrological cycle understanding via process-based global detection, attribution and prediction”.

Objectives of the PAGODA project:

PAGODA will address the uncertainties and inconsistencies in modelling the water cycle by:

  • assessing and quantifying how the water cycle is changing
  • evaluating, against observations at a process level, the representation of variability and changes in the water cycle in existing climate models
  • identifying the processes in the atmosphere, land and oceans that are responsible for any divergence with observations and amongst existing climate models
  • providing robust guidance to users about possible future changes in the water cycle.


Quantifying global climate feedbacks, responses and forcing under abrupt and gradual CO2 forcing
Long, DJ and Collins M.
Climate Dynamics, 2013, Volume 41, Issue 9-10, pp 2471-2479
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1677-0

Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations
Allan, R.P., C. Liu, M. Zahn, D. A. Lavers, E. Koukouvagias and A. Bodas-Salcedo
Surveys in Geophysics, DOI: 10.1007/s10712-012-9213-z, 2013.

Climate warming-related strengthening of the tropical hydrological cycle
Zahn, M. and R. P. Allan
Journal of Climate, 26, p.562-574, 2013.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean
Balan Sarojini, B., P. A. Stott, E. Black, and D. Polson Geophysical Research Letters, 39, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053373, 2012.

Key project members of PAGODA

Principal Investigator:

Professor Pier Luigi Vidale, University of Reading

Co-Principal Investigators:

Dr Eleanor Blyth, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

Professor Gabriele Hegerl, University of Edinburgh

Professor Mat Collins, University of Exeter

Dr Bob Marsh, National Oceanography Centre

Dr Tim Osborn, University of East Anglia


Dr Richard Allan, University of Reading

Dr Steve Woolnough, University of Reading

Dr Eleanor Highwood, University of Reading

Professor Simon Tett, University of Edinburgh

Professor David Stephenson, University of Exeter (also affiliated to University of Edinburgh)

Research staff:

Dr Emily Black, University of Reading (Scientific Co-ordinator)

Dr Buwen Dong, University of Reading

Dr Thomas Toniazzo, University of Reading

Ms Marie-Estelle Demory, University of Reading

Dr Debbie Polson, University of Edinburgh

Dr David Lister, University of East Anglia

Dr Stan Yip, University of Exeter (also affiliated to University of Edinburgh)

Dr David Long, University of Exeter

Dr Chun Lei, University of Reading

Dr Nikolaos Skliris, National Oceanography Centre

PAGODA collaborators at partner institutions:

Dr Peter Stott, Met Office

Dr Sean Milton, Met Office

Dr Peili Wu, Met Office

Professor Joyce Penner, University of Michigan

Dr Francis Zwiers, Environment Canada

Dr Susan Wijffels, CSIRO

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