The full title of the CONVEX project is "Using observational evidence and process understanding to improve predictions of extreme rainfall change".

The CONVEX project is investigating deficiencies in the simulation of extreme rainfall by regional climate models (RCMs) with the aim of providing a better understanding of the atmospheric processes that produce these events. This is essential for improved model predictions of extreme rainfall change under global warming, and will help to inform future adaptation strategies for flood risk management. It will also provide the improved understanding of processes that is vital for future climate model development.

Objectives of the CONVEX project

The main themes of the project include the analysis of observed historical datasets to better understand the characteristics and causes of extreme rainfall as well as to assess the deficiencies of climate models. In collaboration with the UK Meteorological Office, by running an RCM at a higher resolution than has previously been undertaken, the project will assess the benefit gained from increasing climate model resolution and investigate the development of a method by which such improvements can be reproduced using statistical downscaling methods.


Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?
Chan S.C., Kendon E.J., Fowler H.J., Blenkinsop S., Ferro C.A.T., Stephenson D.B.
Climate Dynamics, 2013, in press. DOI:

Realism of rainfall in a very high resolution regional climate model
Kendon E.J., Roberts N.M., Senior C.A., Roberts M.J.
Journal of Climate, 25, 5791-5806. 2012. DOI:

Key project members of CONVEX

Principal Investigator: Professor Hayley Fowler, Newcastle University


Dr Stephen Blenkinsop, Newcastle University

Professor David Stephenson, University of Exeter

Dr Chris Ferro, University of Exeter

Dr Elizabeth Kendon (UK Met Office Hadley Centre)

Richard Jones (UK Met Office Hadley Centre)

Dr Steven Chan, Newcastle University

Nigel Roberts (UK Met Office Joint Centre for Mesoscale Meteorology)

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